The Muses’ Notebook (Sep. 24)

by Baltej Parmar

For this series, I will be posting research that I’ve looked into and posted on my Twitter but wanted to expand and add some more thoughts about the data. Recently I looked into shot selection for all teams based on league average shooting talent. In other words, how good would each team’s offense be if they made a league average percentage of the shots they took, given the type of shots they took? I created two tables which you can see below. The first table accounts for whether or not three-point attempts were contested by the defense, as well as the location of the shot. Doing should tell us both how “good” or “bad” a shot is in terms of location as well as openness.

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The So-Called Disappearance of the Big Man

Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images

          Much ink has been spilled in the latter stages of the three-point revolution on the topic of the march of the traditional big man toward extinction. The low-post scoring, rebounding, bruising, shot-blocking center of previous generations seems to recede further and further from view with every passing season. As teams emphasize floor spacing more and more on offense, the low-post operator vanishes from offensive game plans. Modern offenses often replace the traditional center with a rim runner who sets a high ball screen and rolls to the rim, then gets out of the way or sets another screen.

Defensively, the league continues to transition toward switching on screens, and prizes players who can switch across positions. The big man who can only defend his position is now a liability. The traditional center was typically slower and bulkier than his teammates, which was good for matching up with his opposite number in the low post. Now that the low post game is out of fashion, however, there is little benefit to the added bulk of a traditional big man. Furthermore, because of the evolution of offenses leaguewide, a big man’s lack of quickness is a greater disadvantage on defense than it has ever been.

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